Liberty University Module 7 Confidence Intervals & Statistics and Advertising Discussion

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Module 7 – Keeping It Real Discussion: Confidence Intervals We Use Everyday

Module 7 – Assignment: Statistics and Advertising (PLG1)

Reply 1

Nicholas Mag

Good morning class! I’ve had to research confidence intervals before in relation to failing aircraft parts and the reliability of them. Honestly before reading this chapter and completing this module, I had no real idea what confidence intervals were. I just saw the percentage and thought if they were high and the failures were low then it would be alright. Now I understand the math behind it and what is included in them.

Using confidence levels to compute whether or not a certain aircraft part manufacturer was producing reliable parts helped make a decision if we should keep obtaining parts from that company. In this examples it was a relay for our anti-ice system, which in the Northeast is pretty important to have functional. Granted one unit cannot make the decision on where the military purchases our parts from, but we can provide the information to those that do make the decision.

I didn’t necessarily get to make the choice to keep using the same manufacturer or parts; but I was able to compile the information of number of failures, with X amount of time on wing, and how many of these parts we were going through. I personally wouldn’t have kept using that company, but again I don’t get paid enough to make that decision. Military contracts are quite the monopoly when you can get into one. But it was very interesting to see how it was done, and now being able to fully understand how it works and the statistical data behind it!

– Nick

Reply 2

Dylan Fie

I chose to look at the confidence interval for the Covid-19 vaccine as this is a big thing that is going on in most of our lives today. The Covid-19 vaccine has a 95% confidence interval (CI) but what does that mean? The 95% CI pertains to estimates of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Regarding VE, the 95% CI is a measure of the uncertainty associated with the level of VE obtained from the actual sample studied (Hassad, 2021). It should be known that 95% CI is typical in public health and medicine CI’s.

This data did help in my decision-making process, and it also did not help at the same time. It did help me because I was not sure about the effectiveness of the vaccine as it came through so fast, but at the same time, I knew I was not at the most risk of the side effects, so I did decide to wait to get it because I wanted to make sure people who needed it got it first.

If I had to make the choice again, I would probably do it the same way. I know that it will help others if I have it, but at the same time, other people need it more than I do so I would wait for others to be able to get it first before I did.

Hassad, R. A., PhD. (2021, October 19). Statistical Considerations for Evaluating COVID Vaccine Protection. MedPage Today. https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/second-opinions/94672 (Links to an external site.)